AbbVie And Bristol Myers Squibb Test Twin Neuro Bets After Juvmo Approval And Cobenfy Slowdown

AbbVie and Bristol Myers Squibb entered 2026 with parallel neuroscience acquisition stories that looked easier to judge a year ago than they do now. Earlier this fall, the FDA approved AbbVie’s Parkinson’s disease drug Juvmo, formerly tavapadon, reviving scrutiny of AbbVie’s $8.7 billion takeover of Cerevel Therapeutics alongside Bristol Myers Squibb’s $14 billion acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics.

The simple scorecard would suggest one approved drug each, but the source reporting points to a less settled picture. Mizuho Securities analyst Graig Suvannavejh told BioSpace that it is still too early to declare a clear winner, and the underlying reason is that each deal now has a different problem: AbbVie absorbed a visible clinical failure in schizophrenia, while Bristol Myers Squibb has an approved schizophrenia drug that has not delivered the sales trajectory expected from a $14 billion transaction.

The commercial picture

For Bristol Myers Squibb, the pressure point is Cobenfy. The drug entered the market after winning FDA approval as the first novel schizophrenia drug in more than three decades, but its revenue profile has disappointed. BioSpace reports that Cobenfy generated $155 million in 2025 sales, less than half of some analysts’ initial predictions, and sales continued to miss expectations in 2026.

Suvannavejh told BioSpace that he would not declare victory on Cobenfy’s launch to date, adding that a buyer does not want to spend $14 billion for that kind of sales trajectory. In strategic terms, that turns the Karuna deal from an acquisition that looked largely derisked at signing into one that still needs either stronger commercial execution or additional clinical expansion to justify its price.

AbbVie’s position is different. The centerpiece of the Cerevel acquisition, schizophrenia drug emraclidine, failed two Phase 2 studies less than a year after the December 2023 deal closed, and AbbVie’s shares fell 12% on the news. That result drove questions about whether AbbVie moved too early on a less mature asset. But BioSpace says Juvmo’s approval has now given observers a reason to reassess the purchase more broadly, because Cerevel included more than emraclidine.

William Blair’s Matt Phipps told BioSpace that at the time of the acquisition, tavapadon was not the main focus for many investors, and that its September approval should offer some support for the deal. The industry signal is that platform and portfolio value can re-enter an M&A debate even after a lead thesis breaks.

The road here

These acquisitions have been grouped together partly because they were announced within two weeks of each other in December 2023, both centered on neuroscience, and both featured schizophrenia assets acting on muscarinic receptors. Even so, the risk profile was not the same.

According to Suvannavejh, Karuna was further along when Bristol Myers Squibb bought it. Cobenfy, then known as KarXT, already had two Phase 3 studies showing benefit. Cerevel’s emraclidine, by contrast, had only cleared Phase 1b testing and was still completing two registration-enabling Phase 2 studies. He said that difference helps explain why Karuna commanded a higher valuation and why AbbVie’s move amounted to buying something less derisked.

That framing matters because it changes how investors should read the current comparison. AbbVie may have taken greater development risk at entry, but Bristol Myers Squibb paid more for an asset that had already passed more development gates. If commercialization remains weak, the burden of proof shifts from approval to uptake.

What to watch

One reason the verdict remains open is that both stories still have live catalysts. AbbVie is continuing work on emraclidine in a Phase 2 trial in adults with schizophrenia, and the molecule is also in early-stage development for psychosis, with data for both indications slated for this year.

Bristol Myers Squibb, meanwhile, is trying to widen Cobenfy’s opportunity set. The company is studying the drug in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis, bipolar mania, Alzheimer’s disease agitation, Alzheimer’s disease cognition and pediatric autism irritability. The most immediate source of uncertainty is the ADEPT program in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis. BioSpace reports that BMS had originally expected ADEPT-2 data by the end of last year, then said in December 2025 that results would come by the end of this year, before disclosing in July that topline ADEPT readouts are now expected in early 2027, with a potential interim analysis for ADEPT-1 later this year.

BioSpace also cites tolerability as one possible reason Cobenfy has struggled commercially. Suvannavejh pointed to safety concerns, particularly gastrointestinal adverse events that may be worse in the real world than in Phase 3 studies, while Kroeger told BioSpace in August that the drug has not been proven to be particularly tolerable and that balancing xanomeline with trospium chloride can create high interpatient variability. For now, that leaves both acquisitions in the same place: approved products have reduced some uncertainty, but not enough to settle whether either neuroscience bet will earn its price.